Just when I think Im out…

So today i pretty much decided that i would not write serious posts anymore about anything and i would just mess around and stuff. Then I saw this. Then my right eye started twitching and my left arm went numb. The next thing I knew it was 3 days later and I had a tattoo that said “what’s cookin’ good lookin” in Korean on my stomach. And then I wrote this.

Before I say anything, Im sure that Steve Kallas means well and I wish him the best of luck in his web logging adventures. Now I will rip apart everything the man seemingly stands for (I like to imagine Steve as a guy who goes around handing out flyers about how bunting is awesome, kinda like those people you see at harvard square, except the flyers are usually about how saccharine is secretly poisoning our children or why George Bush should be impeached).

Im also not checking for typos and will probably lack capitalization a lot. Again, I just came out of a coma. Give me a break. I apologize in advance for all this.

It will get lost in the shuffle (as it almost always does), but the use of the sacrifice bunt was crucial to both teams in Monday night’s (arguably) deciding game in the NLCS, as Philadelphia took a commanding 3-1 lead by beating the Dodgers, 7-5.

Before I got to the end of this sentence I assumed this whole thing would be about how the Angels actually tried a fricken suicide squeeze and blah blah they are dumb. I like those articles. But no, Steve is about to try to tell us why bunting gives us all free healthcare and causes the S&P 500 to jump 100 points.

In the top of the sixth (down 3-2), the Phillies had runners on first and second, nobody out and Shane Victorino at the plate. Manager Charlie Manuel had Victorino sacrifice bunt, which made it second and third (tying run on third, go-ahead run on second) with one out.

SO f’n dumb. Charlie Manuel sat in the dugout and thought in his brain, “hey what if I give the opposing team .106 runs?” In Manuel defense, he was probably thinking this.

Manuel was criticized heavily by the announcers and, when Pedro Feliz hit a weak, short fly to right (Ryan Howard, on third, had no chance to tag), the announcers were right – how could Manuel have taken the bat out of Victorino’s hands?

Where are there anouncers that are this smart? Where was he watching the game? I really want to know so I can give those announcers the We Talkin’ ‘Bout Practice purple heart, which is a piece of a game worn Candace Parker jersey wrapped in tin foil with glued on glitter that we turn into a necklace with some sort of environmentally unfriendly string.

But then, reliever Chan Ho Park threw a wild pitch and the tying run crossed home. Just another example of how you can score from third on a play that you can’t score on from second.

This is really rare.

Is it rare? Absolutely.

Agreed. I mean, there’s no way Manuel was counting on a wild pitch in that situation.

Was Charlie Manuel expecting a wild pitch in that situation? Of course not.

(gasps in wonderment)

But it’s just another example of how a sacrifice bunt can set up a game-tying run in an important (deciding?) playoff game.

Nope. It’s an example of how sometimes doing stupid stuff doesn’t hurt you because your opposing team’s pitcher throws an F’n wild pitch. If youre playing against Chan Motherfletching ho park, why in the world would you give away outs? He’s terrible!

Nobody would voice the obvious – that the bunt was a key component in the inning.

My guess is, they score more runs if they don’t bunt. I base this off the FACT that if they played this scenario out eleventy billion times, the phillies would score roughly .1 more runs per scenario.

So we moved to the bottom of the sixth, score tied at 3. With first and second and nobody out, Joe Torre, never big on the bunt as Yankee manager (but now returning to his National League roots?), has Rafael Furcal lay down a sacrifice bunt with first and second and nobody out. Torre hits the sacrifice bunt jackpot – Ryan Howard comes in, fields the bunt and promptly throws it away past a lunging Chase Utley.

This bunt worked because the phillies made a fucking error. So he got on base. What are the odds they make an error if he grounds it to a fielder? The same? What if he grounds it into a hole? What if he gets an F’n hit? What if he hits a double? What if he walks? Point is, this scenario is the best case scenario for a bunt, while the best case scenario for a regular at bat is a home run. The worst case scenario for a regular at bat is worse then the worst case scenario for a bunt. So the question is, over time, which one is better? Is there a way to quantify this? Yes! It’s called stats and we now know that it is nearly ALWAYS dumb to bunt. You slay me Steve Kallas. You stab me in my metaphorical heart. I say metaphorical because I am actually this.

That inning would end with Russell Martin lining out into a double play as Chase Utley made a brilliant play to save two runs and end the inning.

So they ended up scoring less runs than the average team does with the situation of first and second nobody out.

The question, of course, from a use-the-bunt perspective is how many people would have understood, if the Dodgers had scored an additional two runs there, how important that simple sacrifice bunt had been in giving the Dodgers an even bigger lead?

Firstly, they didn’t score more. Secondly, I do understand your point, but do you understand mine that if you let him hit better things happen? You would then score more runs. Thirdly, the bunt had NO effect because it was the ERROR that had the effect. Causality and Coincidence people!

Example: I manage a team. It is the redsox. We are playing the worcester high roosters. I sac bunt everytime a guy gets to second base. Guess what? We’re winning that game. Because we have better players. They will probably make lots of errors and stuff. So is bunting the right call? Hell to the F’n no.

As stated then, in Game 7 of the 1955 World Series, the Brooklyn Dodgers had their number three and four hitters (future Hall of Famers Duke Snider and Roy Campanella, respectively) lay down sacrifice bunts. The first was misplayed, the second was successful and Gil Hodges then hit a sacrifice fly and drove in the important insurance run in their epic 2-0 Game 7 victory.

You can always find one instance or two that shows how bunting works. Having your 3 and 4 hitters bunt is incredibly stupid. Always. (ok not always, like if the game is tied in the bottom of the ninth and a guy is on second with no outs and you happen to have one of the few 3/4 hitters who actually knows how to bunt)

Let’s say I’m president. I drop a nuclear bomb on canada because I am really dumb and incompetent. But it just so happens that it hits osama bin laden in the face (who was hiding in canada, who knew!) and all other canadians were hiding in bunkers celebrating some weird canadian holiday. As a result of the bombing osama is dead and all canadians are immune to radiation poisoning (because it was a special kind of nuke, ya see).

So am I an awesome president?

Is Torre a good manager?

Imagine if the announcers (or the talk radio hosts or the statistical “experts”) of today had been around back then.

I am not a statistical expert because I understand that more runs are better than less runs (or is it “fewer” runs, whatev I aint no grammar expert niether).

And yes, if I was around back then I would have correctly pointed out that this decision was bad.

You can hear them screaming “How can you take the bat out of the hands of sluggers like Snider and Campanella? It’s a disgrace. Don’t the Dodgers know that, statistically, this can’t work? These guys are future Hall of Famers. How can they do such a thing?”

Yup would’ve yelled stuff like this at my mom who is the only person who can hear me because I have no friends and live in my mom’s…

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…attic.

Maybe managers (and players and announcers and talk-show hosts and stat experts) are starting to see this and understand it. Then again, maybe not.

One day, everyone will understand the simple equation more runs> less runs. Secretly I hope Steve Kallas’s hang around, just because I like knowing that I DEFINITIVELY am a better baseball manager than roughly 70% of managers in the MLB.

In conclusion, I believe Patrick Henry once said, “Are bunts so sweet and batting average with RISP so dear as to be purchased at the price of fewer runs and more losses? Forbid it Almighty God! I know not what course others may take; but as for me, give me sabermetrics/simple math or give me DEATH!”