Playoff Picks

The NFL playoffs have shaped up quite nicely this year with no clear super-bowl favorites and a couple of “streaking” teams. Here are my picks for the first round.

(I’m using the lines that are on centsports, because that’s what I care about)

Unfortunately, the Redskins cheerleaders season ended with the team

Atlanta @ Arizona (EVEN)

Early in the season, Michael Turner exploded against bad rushing defenses but struggled against quality competition. However, down the stretch he became more consistent and scored a touchdown in each of the last 4 games. These Cardinals are 16th in YPG allowed rushing, but 28th in overall scoring and I expect Atlanta to put up points. Arizona doesn’t have that elite or great corner to cover Roddy White, so he will get his catches as well. On the other side, Arizona has had the worst rushing attack in the league this year but Fitzgerald and Boldin are the best 1-2 combo of wideouts in the league. Atlanta’s defense hasn’t allowed over 29 points all season and I think they can limit Arizona enough to prevent an all-out explosion.

My pick: Atlanta

Indy @ SD (+1.5)

A 12-4 team vs. an 8-8 team should be a blowout, but not the way these teams have played this season. While the Chargers lost 7 games this season by only 1 possession (including a game to the Colts), the Colts have won 8 games this season by only 1 possession. Maybe this means the Colts are overrated and the Chargers underrated, but I’m not buying it. The Chargers are only 3-7 against teams outside of their terrible division and 0-5 versus playoff teams. Teams like that tend to lose in the playoffs even if they’re “streaking.”

My pick: Indy -1.5

Baltimore @ Miami (+3.5)

I’ve been pulling for Miami this year (who hasn’t), but I don’t expect much from them in this game. The Baltimore D will have no problem shutting down the Wildcat, and Miami hasn’t put up a huge amount of points this season as it is. On the other hand, Baltimore has been able to make something out of nothing – 18th in offensive YPG, 11th in offensive PPG. Their offense takes advantage of gimmicky and big-plays and scored over 30 points in 5 of the last 9 games. Because of that, the Ravens are tied with the Titans for the highest Net Points total in the league (+141), which is generally a good indicator of great teams. Meanwhile Miami may have overachieved slightly this year because their total is only +28, despite finishing with the same record as the Ravens.

My pick: Baltimore -3.5

Philly @ Minnesota (+3)

The Eagles have the perfect defense to shut down Minnesota. They can legitimately stack 8 in the box on every play with Lito, Asante, and Dawkins holding down the secondary. This will limit Peterson and knowing Jim Johnson, his blitzes will cause mayhem for T-Jack. That said, the Eagles offense has decided to stay on the bus for certain games this season (Cincinnati and Washington were really ugly). The Vikes are a little banged up on defense but (for no other reason) I have to go with my gut which says they keep this game close and low-scoring.

My pick: Vikings +3

(Sidenote: Vikings fans don’t deserve this pick. Damn, sellout your stadium. I expect it from Cardinals fans, but that’s embarrassing)